Wednesday 7 January 2009

Coming home to roost?

The mill continues to turn, will he, won't he? I don't know, I care, but I'll wait to see what happens before I start getting all over excited and sweaty like a paedophile at school sports day. The Arshavin rumours continue, will Zenit budge on their asking price, only time will tell I suspect. Kolo is still at the club, was their any truth in the locker clearing stories, maybe he just moved lockers?

Following a little bit of discussion on this blog, I've suddenly realised that the Sky TV deal is up for renegotiation again this year. This is important, just think of the impact that the global credit crunch and recession could have on this process:

"Nevertheless, the broker expects the deterioration in consumer confidence will continue to weigh on BSkyB’s share price, as will concerns over regulatory issues. The renegotiation of the Premier League football contract in 2009 is also a concern. "

Consumer confidence will continue to fall and this could significantly impact upon Sky's projected revenues, so given that Sky's efforts contributed 1.3billion of a total of 1.9billion pounds last time around, are we likely to see Sky's money continue to rise as it has done in the past? I think not this time.

Liverpool's current plight puts a lot into context. They may have hit the pause button for six months, but if things are even worse in July then they could be in real trouble if they have to refinance their package in the middle of a recession, they certainly won't be able to pay off 350 million anytime soon. I wonder how Manu's situation is in comparison.

Whatever happens this transfer window, I certainly won't be calling for the cash to be splashed irrelevant of the long term consequences. Stupid moves now could result in the club going out of existence in the not too distant future, and I am not being melodramatic, mark my words.


Anonymous said...

79goona, true words. This financial crisis is a recession and it won't be fun for many clubs. But we do have a hefty cash cushion if the financial stmts are to be believed. Losing a cl spot is also a risk to be avoided, as such we should spend but wisely and well. I also believe we should sell if we have to lower the cost.

Anonymous said...

Im liking this blog the more and more i read it. good work fella.

Ted said...

I also doubt that shirt sponsors, or stadium deals, are going to be popular items on companies' budgets at the moment. The Emirates deal was worth about £100m and lasts, i think, until 2021. Liverpool's deal with Carlsberg ends next year, Man Utd's with AIG ends in 2011. Those deals provide a lot of cash to football clubs to pay the interest on their financing. If that revenue stream dries up, then the whole house of cards could collapse.

Arsenal taking a long term view with the Emirates was, in my opinion, a masterstroke.

Anonymous said...

In all my years of following THE ARSENAL there have always been shrewd in the financial department.We have on occasions spent large on a big name i.e charlie nicholas,supermac etc but not anymore as Mr Wenger has proven in the last 12 yrs and i think that Arsene has seen what reckless player buying has done to other clubs and that is why he has gone with our youth set up and brought youth for a long term future not as we see with scum utd,chelski and scousers.That's why moroninho left chelski as there closed the purse and he couldn't buy his way of trouble and he left them with a ,i think,600 million debt.Our shrewd financial brains has left us with a 25mill bill a year on our beautiful stadium only no mass debt for players or wages but we need to have c/l footbal to cover it,if we don't no big deal we still cover it.So if sky cut there money so what, i got virgin and i watch ARSENALtv, so it might stop the thought 'we're struggling lets pay out 50mill and do well this season bugger next year'.So my fellow gooners we safe but lets laugh as other who thought throwing money around was good business sweat when the banks ask for there millions back.
Imagine charity adverts on t.v for man u,chelski etc asking for donations for just £1000 a week you could save a club hahaha.

Anonymous said...

I am not surprised to see that Sky is struggling to continue its success because credit crunch already hit England. For Liverpool, I think, they should follow Arsenal’s youth policy. Arsenal can really feel lucky that they have a manager like Arsene Wenger who knows how to deal with financial crisis with huge debt, besides keeping the class of a club intact.

Anonymous said...

Credit crunch sounds like a breakfast cereal?as stated before Arsene saw what other clubs were getting into and stuck with youth.Arsenal have always been good with money so we shouldn't worry on that all we should concern our selves with is how the team perform with circumstances going on!We do need a couple of players but at what cost!!!Arsene isn't going to do a chelski and pay 25m for a 5m player so we have to be patient and believe he do it again and pull out a gem.Sky have suffered due to the dereg's and good,bias pundits and certain teams constantly on (no names but you know the 3),and there will cut the money offered and then you hear the bleating of scousers,man u and twats at chelsea when it's there own fault of buy,buy,buy instead of bring through the youth like us.So for buying titles there going to pay big time hopefully soon.Refer to charity ads think of Oxfam doing a ad for chelsea (laugh) john overrated terry crying as he sells his house and cars etc and we been ask for £3 a month to save a lifestyle.

Obsinho said...

Amidst all this, the one question I have never got my head round is Spurs.

I believe Enic are there sole shareholder, or is it in fact Joe Lewis and they roll out the ENIC name so they don't sound like a billionaire's play thing?

Anyway, how do they stay afloat? Smallish stadium, low media sales (inlc. merchandise) compared to the top 4 and no consistent European football. On this meagre financial backing they regulalrly spend £50m a transfer window on players (so add on another amount for wage increases), pay off sacked managers (I'd say £5m a pop) and there is never a question of cash shortages. They run themelves very much like Liverpool (spend money no matter what the outcome will be), so are they facing similar imminent funding issues?

Any lurking Spurs fans able to explain?

Ted said...

Spurs are not in any great trouble - you have to remember they pocketed about £55 million in transfer fees for Berbatov, Keane and Carrick, which explains a lot of their recent spending.

However, they might get into trouble if they try to raise the finance now (£150m+) to build their new stadium, as they don't have the revenue stream to sustain a big debt.

1979gooner said...

ted- good points about the other things that could also be nailed in similar fashion such as kit deals/sponsorships

obs- as ted says I think the spuds have actually sold a lot of turd burgers for a surprising amount of money, ignoring the odd good player, the fact that people actually paid money for the likes of malbranque, tianio and kaboul amazes me!

Obsinho said...

Ok Spurs have oicked up some money (and too much money normally( for shifting some shit (and some good players) but this year alone they have spent;

Bentley - £15m
Modric - £15m
Pavlyuchenko - £10-15m
Gomes - £12m
Defoe - £15m
Sacking Ramos - £4m

And they have bid £12m for Downing (!). That is a remarkable amount of money for a mid-table team to spend. Just don't quite believe it can all be as rosy as they claim.

Obsinho said...

I am not sure if you have read le Grove recently, but they have written an open letter to Danny Fiszmann, and have mentioned today that he has not yet replied. How very rude of him.

In a similar vain, can we all draft on-line letters to people we don't know, never will, and who have no interest in our existence?

I want to start by asking Keith Chegwin what his favourite cheese is? Cheggers I know you're a big fan of the site, and I'm a fan of yours, so come on and let us all know - we deserve it.

Ted said...

Obs - your list of players signed by Spurs is largely covered by the £60m they have raised from sales. Its not a big net spend.

Cheggers likes edam.

K man said...

Looks like Kolo is staying - Wenger said in his press conference that no one is leaving. Good news. Hope he plays well with Djourour tomorrow - htink they might be our best centre back pairing if Kolo canget some form together.

Obsinho said...

The old malaria has caused Kolo a bit of a fitness issue though - he may never regain his stamina. Which is kind of what made him such a great defender before.

Wenger also seems to have been very coy on Arse-shaving. This one will run and run.....