Mike Dean - a shocking statistic

Mike Dean has refereed 32 games involving Arsenal since 2000.  Of these 32 games we have won 14.  In total since 2000 in games not involving Mike Dean we have won 256 and not won 162.

Interestingly for anyone who understands statistics one can do a very simple and straightforward statistical test on this data to see the chances that we are less likely to win with Mike Dean refereeing is down to bias or chance.

I have plugged the numbers in and the outcome is remarkable.  The number that comes out is 0.06, this basically means the likelihood that this statistic is down to chance is 6%, or 6 in 100.

If one looks at the matches Dean has refereed it is not a skewed sample, this is either down to chance or bias, and the odds are that it is bias.  The statistics show that it is 94% likely Dean's bias accounts for our poor record under his decision making.

Suicidal and indefensible

I am not a fair weather fan, so what I am about to say is not just the ranting of a bitter and twisted fool, it is the frustrated ranting of someone who always tries to give people the benefit of the doubt and a fair chance.

Firstly well fought QPR and a good three points for them.  We have no one to blame but ourselves.  The decision from AW to start Aaron Ramsey in the team in a wide forward role was many things.  It was inexplicable given we had Gervinho and Ox on the bench fully fit.  It was foolish given we needed pace and width, especially away from home with the chance to counter attack.

It was just such an obvious error from the manager.  Ramsey has not even been on form recently, in fact the opposite.  Even someone like Yossi Benayoun would have given us far more in that attacking role.  Ramsey is a decent young central midfielder and his deployment today was a stupid mistake.

Even with the right XI maybe we wouldn't have won, I still think we would have had a much better chance, our lack of an outlet on both flanks was so obvious today.  The two defensive errors from Thomas Vermaelen were poor, they were individual errors, these things happen, I will not castigate a man who has been outstanding in recent weeks for us.

We need to finish strongly if we are to hold on to 3rd spot, three points today would have put real pressure on Spurs, as things stand we have given them hope and this was such a cheap loss of points.  We play City next Sunday and if Ramsey starts on the left of the forward line, I will despair, I just cannot understand how such an experienced manager can make such terrible tactical decisions?

Quiet before the storm? QPR today and corrupt UEFA

We travel away to QPR today and although it should be three points on paper, I am sure Arsene will be repeating himself to the players in saying that we need to be fully committed in every game and if we are not, then we will slip up and drop points.  QPR are no great side but it is a London derby game with the hosts fighting for every point they can get to try to avoid the drop.  Cisse's suspension is a good thing, he is a quick and dangerous forward.

Our injury list is shortening and this has surely been one of the key reasons for our resurgence, we had such a horrendous run of injuries earlier in the season, particularly at full back.  I'd hope Gibbs would keep his place, the rest of the defence is obvious, then I would hope that Rosicky would play alongside Song/Arteta in midfield, with either Gervinho or the Ox in the forward line alongside Theo/RVP.

The sounds coming out of the club about our proposed ins and out are very encouraging, as many of us would have demanded and hope, the lessons from last summer appear to have been learnt.  Arsene has made it clear that his priority is to tie down RVP/Theo/Song to new long term deals, while getting rid of the squad's unwanted dross (Vela/Denilson/Bendtner/Squillaci/Almunia/Chamakh et al).  It also appears that the club wants to get moving early in the market and not leaves things to the last minute, the Podolski story is gathering momentum and he would be a very useful addition to the squad.

Finally one can't help but notice the fact that UEFA are a bunch of corrupt cronies.  UEFA's kangaroo court has again found Arsene guilty of daring to speak to the referee and dished him out a ridiculous punishment.  He is going to appeal but it seems pointless, it's a bit like appealing something dished out by the Stasi, you know it's unfair but the corrupt cretins in charge will not change their minds.

In the context of other managers like Guardiola doing far worse and not even being charged, one has to question the objectivity of UEFA in the way in which it selectively punishes individuals.  It is also strange that Barcelona seem to get such favourable treatment, for example how did RVP get sent off for nothing last season while three Barca players grabbed our players by the throat without any punishment?  Have a read of this interesting UntoldArsenal piece, it really does make you suspect that the game is not quite as clean as some would pretend.

ps Finally it is the 11th anniversary of David Rocastle's death today, RIP Rocky, a great example on and off the pitch, a true gent....

A win that showed so much

Midway through the second half I just noticed how hard the team were working, how hard we were pressing and how much better we were without that ball that we had been earlier on in the season, it was a slightly strange moment, and it was a strangely satisfying one, it showed to be just how far we have come in the last few months as a team and as a footballing unit.

Of course Villa are a deeply average side, they have precious little top quality and a lot of rather mediocre niggling physicality, all very much in the image of their dire manager.  However the way in which we dismantled them was still pretty impressive, Villa couldn't get a look in, Gibbs early goal and Walcott's well taken second were fully deserved, Villa struggled to move the ball around effectively on the rare occasions that they had it, we swarmed around them and forced them into repeated errors, our work rate and pressing was fantastic particularly in the first half.  In fact two nil was pretty flattering for Villa, it really could have been completely done and dusted by the break.

Although the game to fizzle out a bit in the second half and we did lose a little bit of concentration, Villa consequently created a couple of openings and they could have made things slightly nervy had they taken advantage.  In the end though they didn't, Arteta ridiculously powerful and precise twenty five yard free kick was as good a set piece goal as you will see all season, unbelievable and a nice gloss on a good all round team performance.

Arsene is also looking more like his old self again, he knows we should not get carried away, we need to keep working hard and giving everything in every single minute of every game that we have left this season, Arsene has realised a key behind this turnaround has been a better work ethic, more discipline and more commitment from the players.

In recent years we have lost too many games without even putting in the effort and that appears to have stopped, complacency has to be continually resisted and this lesson finally seems to have been learnt.  The positive signs are that we have also learnt from last summer's transfer shambles, we seem intent on avoiding close season disasters this time around, the key now is to fight for every ball from now til May, we need a squad with the right ethic and the right work rate, and things are looking good in this regards at the moment.

A heartening one nil to the Arsenal

That wasn't relaxing but it was a massive win, especially in the context of Chelsea and Spurs dropping points, we are now in a strong position in fighting for 3rd place, not something some of us would have believed a few weeks ago.  Arsene made the interesting move of dropping the Ox to the bench, with Rosicky moving forward into the front three and Aaron Ramsey into the midfield three.

We hammered Everton early on and it was frustrating that we didn't go more than the single goal ahead, Ramsey squandered some great chances, as did others, the football was so slick and fast, probably amongst the best twenty minutes of football we have played all season.  Everton did come back into the game and we were extremely lucky to see Drenthe's equaliser denied by the linesman's erroneous flag.  Other than that we defended solidly and well deserved the one nil lead on the balance of play.

The second half saw us drop a bit deeper and play a bit of a dangerous game, fortunately we defended well enough to keep Everton out and the hosts just lacked that bit of quality up front to convert the pressure they had into goals.  The whole defence were outstanding, we competed so well in the air, defending numerous crosses with real confidence, the offside trap was also rather polished, the annoying and gravity prone Jelavic was correctly flagged off several times in the second half alone.  The ref Mason did ok too, other than being too lenient with the nasty Cahill, he let the game flow pretty well on the whole.

We should have made the game safe, RVP missed a particularly good chance in the final ten minutes, having been set up by Gervinho's excellent low centre, but we held out nonetheless, a really good show of defensive strength and character, and another away win.  It must be said that Tim Howard was top notch in the Everton goal, two saves stood out, one from RVP's low shot in the first half and one from Ramsey's low effort in the second half, he kept Everton in the game at times.

There is a real confidence flowing through the side at the moment and hopefully this in combination with our reducing injury burden can result in the positive momentum continuing to gather in our league run-in.  Defensively we have made real strides since the start of the season, the work rate was also far better in the midfield areas, Arteta was great on his Goodison return.  I have to say I was not convinced by playing Rosicky and Ramsey in the same side, I don't think both of these players are far better in central areas.  Anyways, great win and three points, come on you Gunners!

Thoughts with Fabrice Muamba

Fabrice Muamba collapsed on the field today at the end of the first half at White Hart Lane.  Resuscitation was attempted on the field and he was rushed to hospital, the game was sensibly aborted.  All our thoughts are obviously with Fabrice and his family.

It is worth remembering how relatively unimportant football is at times like this, and it is also worth pointing out just how fantastic the Tottenham supporters were, chanting Muamba's name and applauding him off the field.  We are all fellow human beings and at times like this we should all pull together, let's just hope Fabrice can pull through.

Update 8.15pm: Positively the hospital have now described Fabrice Muamba's condition as 'stable', very encouraging indeed.....

'Krul' but well deserved

I shall keep this brief but what a great fighting performance that sums up how far we have come in recent months.  The only change to our eleven saw Arteta return in midfield with the Ox moving into the front three in place of Gervinho.  To be fair to Newcastle, they did start very well and looked dangerous in the first fifteen minutes or so.  They took the lead when Vermaelen sloppily gave the ball away, Gibbs was badly positioned and Ben Arfa had too much time and space, he took his chance expertly and cut inside, blasting past Szczesny at his near post.

From that moment on there was only one team that looked like winning, we stormed up the other end, Theo fed RVP, he slipped inside Williamson and cracked home the important equaliser.  We dominated the rest of the first half and continued in this vein all second half, we huffed and puffed, and it looked like we might never get that little break in front of goal.  In the end it came when many of us had almost given up all hope, Vermaelen steaming in at the back stick to bury the ball with his right foot, 2-1 and what a win.

It was very satisfying and fully deserved.  Rosicky had been awesome, spinning this way and that, running the show in midfield, it was a really good performance from many others too, Theo was particularly sharp in my opinion.  We had had the chances to win the game before Vermaelen's winner, RVP and Gervinho with the best of them.  One cannot feel sorry for Newcastle too, their persistent time wasting was rather pathetic and Krul got his just deserts, pick that one out!