Interestingly for anyone who understands statistics one can do a very simple and straightforward statistical test on this data to see the chances that we are less likely to win with Mike Dean refereeing is down to bias or chance.
I have plugged the numbers in and the outcome is remarkable. The number that comes out is 0.06, this basically means the likelihood that this statistic is down to chance is 6%, or 6 in 100.
If one looks at the matches Dean has refereed it is not a skewed sample, this is either down to chance or bias, and the odds are that it is bias. The statistics show that it is 94% likely Dean's bias accounts for our poor record under his decision making.
49 comments:
yup...i saw him celebrating the spurs goal. Why the fa don't take any action for these?are they so invincible? If so, then sorry to say that it is only a matter of time for the bookies to buy them...
Us being shit today had nothing whatsoever to do with who the ref was!!!
tonyss
this a point made one 11 years of statistics mate
your comment is pointless and ignorant
The ref was not to blame for all 11players not turning up today.
Stop making excuses we lost because we were not good enough
the ref had nothing to do with the loss. it was purely down to poor team selection, how does the manager put Ramsey on the wing yet we had ox & gervinho who play better in the same position. All in all except for koscienly, every body else didn't turn up today .....POOR PERFORMANCE!
We were rubbish today it had nothing to do with the ref.Did Mike Dean give TV the runaround this afternoon?
you are worse than Wenger with the excuses.
QPR wanted it more than us thats the bottom line
A pathetic excuse for a shit performance.Only Kos can be excused
Today was the type of performance we have seen too many times this season.The team was not up for it.And thats all down to Wenger.TV had an absolute nightmare
This is put simply a pathetic article and you should be ashamed...we where not good enough today and the result had nothing to do with Mike Dean at all.I expect this sort of ridiculous blogging from a Spuds fan!!
God we're so shit.we get some hope going and then throw it all away.
There's only one thing left to do,forget about Arsenal and become a yiddo,I've been getting sick of all the total idiots sat round me at the Emirates for some time now and i've always secretly admired the boys down the road.
I was at the match and was worried beforehand that Mr Dean was in charge. I was aware of our poor record with him refereeing. Today was nothing to do with Mike Dean, I thought he gave a good and fair performance, which is more than can be said for our team. Front back to front we were rubbish, third place was looking very good, now we are under pressure to beat Man City next week and hoping Spurs slip up.
I love mike dean.yido yido yido.it's over live with it dickheads
mike dean is a faggot and he is arsenal hater,fuck him and fuck who ever likes him.QPR will be relugated and tghe trushy barton will play at the championship next season.fuck hughes ,fuck QPR,fuck mike dean,fuck howrd webb,fuch phill dowds.
Anonymous, 21.16, it sounds like your one of our so called supporters seated next to 20.49, who should go and support his real team 'the Yids'. Also with your foul language and illiterate spelling,please go back to school. Arsenal have always had well educated supporters. Today most players did not turn up and were not ready to fight for the team. The Ox should have started today, at least he would have shown real commitment and desire.
Oh dear oh dear.
If any of the brain deficient retards who have left their ignorant comments had bothered to read my earlier post they would see that I am not blaming Dean for today.
However it is clear that Dean has been generally biased against arsenal over his career, the stats back this up.
Some of you are clearly rather dim and it is sad to see such stupidity on show.
If you can make a decent point on the stats, fine, if you can only ramble on in braindead cretinous fashion the sod off, with respect of course!
Mike Dean is clearly a shape-shifting reptilian and part of the new world order, carrying out their secret plan to stop the almighty Arsenal from winning trophies!
Jordan gooner,what a silly man you are,to generalise that Arsenal have always had well educated supporters.Whist laughing at your silly comment a little bit of wee escaped.
Ramshit is an unadultrated piece of bad luck.
Wenger's wicked! Doesnt care bout how we fans feel
Now everybody who says that our defeat today had nothing to do with Mike Dean hold on a minute. If as a player you know you're going to get kicked more often because Dean won't punish the opposition or no matter what you do Dean will more often than not give decisions against you or if you deserve a penalty that Dean traditionally gives you, what happens. You start the game in a negative frame of mind. Dean is a disgrace and he has an effect on us every time we play. Think about it.
Very good analysis!
Any chance you can do the same for other referees to see who else demonstrates a similar negative bias or even, if any have a positive bias?
Thanks! JY.
Once I saw the ref was to be Mike Dean(5th epl match involving Arsenal this season alone!) And that Ramsey would start the match in place of Ox, I switched the television because I knew we would lose the match. What a bad recipe for a match. I couldn't afford to watch other epl matches whereas Arsenal was playing. Ramsey simply belongs to the bench. Why should AW keep faith with Ramsey at the club's expense. Ramsey is back and we have started struggling again.
let us nt blame de ref the whole prblm was left wing .ramsey
I just don't understand why is ramsey on the first line-up... the squad is good without him.. ramsey simply don't belong a team with arsenal caliber
I agree that the ref had nothing to do with it today. Although I'm surprised that no ones in England brings up the fact that Howard Webb and Phil Dowd are bought by Manchester United. Pop in any random tape of their games in the last two years and you'll see.
There's no coincidence that United suck in europe and against other good teams but win the domestic league. Ref's account for 12-20 points a year for them year after year. Then everyone hails Ferguson when he doesn't coach (he pays others to do so. When he was coaching himself they sucked back in the day), he intimidates.
Hmmm I'm not actually sure you understand statistics. You are assuming Mike Dean is assigned AT RANDOM - referees are selected. Therefore its entirely possible Mike Dean has a higher chance of being selected when we are playing tougher opposition if he is considered adept at refereeing two Top 4 teams (for example).
Do a full regression analysis using other important variables (such as quality of the opposition, etc) and then I might start taking you seriously
anon 0748
I do understand stats
If you look at the opposition then it is a pretty good spread of quality sides, midtable sides and lower table sides
1979gooner
correlation does not equal causation. look at the actual games from your link, how many can you point to and say we were robbed? You can point the finger at Dean, or the pitch, or whatever you like.. but all in all QPR scored twice, and we scored once. Thats that.
Stats are boring. Haven't u got some trains to spot?
Anon 815
Indeed, however a strong correlation makes a very good case for causation, something you don't appear to grasp
I blame Mike Dean for yesterdays defeat.He picked Ramsey and he brought on Dumb and Dumber Gervinho and Chamakh.Shame on him
Thank god it had nothing to do with Wenger
While Fergie waits to pick up Utd's 20th title do you think he worries that he missed out on Ramsey? No me neither
last particularly offensive anonymous
if you cannot express your limited brainpower on the keyboard with being quite so offensive, then please do not darken our door again
your abusive vitriol merely shows up your rank lack of intelligence and class
It seems as though you (the author) had the conclusion before the you even had the stats to support your theory.
I love the gunners- always have and always will. I will rarely say anything negative about our glorious club. Yet I always try to be honest.
In my opinion QPR had a much better day at the office. Its rare in life to find anyone or any entity that has a good day at the office every time they turn up. And that goes for good refs, not-so-good refs, good teams and not-so-good teams. Stats usually show past patterns, not present ones.
And Mr Author, it would only be fair to assume that you yourself had a bad day at the office when analysing these stats.
jesus , arsenal fans are shit and im one ! we were on a 7 game roll there entitled to a bad game ! were great were great oh we lost one game oh jesus arsenal are woeful sell him sack this person , people are not machines players have bad days , stop acting like girls and just support the team properly win lose or draw because that kind of dedicated support helps lift the players , not the fickle shit arsenal fans have , that time with eboue was disgraceful ! im glad he left he deserves better fans than that even thoguh the players loved him !selective supporting you will support when we are doing well !
John and latest anon
The point is not about Dean vs QPR, it is the general trend
I have not tried to link the two, you have both inappropriately jumped to conclusions
Mike Dean is a concern for Arsenal, purely because his conduct when reffing an Arsenal game should give cause for concern at the FA ? The FA have only shown me that they are a toothless animal at best, and lack the ability to deal with some of the most trivial of issues in the gmae, let alone real serious ones.
Mike Dean is a bit of a disgrace and that video of him jumping up and down when the Yids scored, shouold really have brought him before the FA immediately. The fact that it didn;t means that you can infur what you will about the so called ruling body >?>? F..king disgarce to me either way !
Laughable and worthless blog. And now he's trying to weasel out of it, hasn't even the courage to stand by his convictions,
Can you control this for the home and away bias please. It is known that refs favour home teams, so if you analyse home and away game seperately then we will see if that is true. It may just be that Mike Dean referees us away from home more often that not.
So what we lost one game after a great run of wins and now all the bitches are moaning. There are some tossers out there who claim to support Arsenal and do nothing but slag off he team they're supposed to support.
Mike Dean does have a bias against Arsenal and always has done, he's total c**t.
Good article - and the stats are there...
It's a real shame that after one bad result some apparent fans are turning ugly again. It doesn't help. and show the expectations of winning every game are just unrealistic - have some of you never played the game?
Back to Mike Dean though... after his celebration of the Spuds goal I wrote to the FA. below is their response.
Thank you for contacting The Football Association.
A match official is expected to declare an interest if they have ever been connected in any way with a particular club. If they declare this interest they would not be able to officiate on a match involving that team.
If an official has had a connection, there are plenty of people who would make sure we were aware and it would be difficult for an official to keep this quiet especially for the higher profile games.
Kind regards
Gary Stonehouse | Customer Relations
Communications Division
The FA Group
Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London, HA9 0WS
Postal address: Wembley Stadium, PO Box 1966, London, SW1P 9EQ
T +44 (0) 845 458 1966 | F+44 (0) 844 980 0666 |
www.TheFA.com, www.wembleystadium.com
To complain and actuually get Mike Dean removed from possibe Arsenal fixtures.
Go the the FA website and post a complaint via the email portal.
the more they get the more visable Mike Deans bias will be.
Terrible post and a waste of time to read! The ref had nothing to do with this result and people that think he did may need a visit to a doctor. Arsenal were poor and QPR played well simple as that.
Awful excuse for the teams failure. Secondly, you may argue that the statistics prove your point but I would disagree. Using statistics you would have to conclude that you have failed to meet the 95% confidence which is the standard for deeming something 'significant', you also have a data set of 34 which is far too small to use statistical test's effectively(which your results would show). Not only are you wrong about the football but your statistics are manipulating the true results.
Philip Dowd, hes the arsenal hater, check his stats
anon 1303
actually you are the one demonstrating a rank lack of understanding of stats
94% is pretty significant
pretending that 95% is of any real meaning is artificial, if you are at 94 or 96% there is not much in it,
the point is the element of doubt is pretty small, 6%
34? what utter codswallop
the stats take this all into account
1979gooner
To everyone commenting on the QPR match, where in the article is it mentioned? Try reading words and thinking before posting irrelevant moans.
anon 1823
exactly
some people just like adding up 1 and 1 to make 6
1979gooner
you're quite right about Mike Dean, the fact is that Sky use his stats from reffing Arsenal games at the beginning of every match. I think before the Spurs win at home we'd had 1 point from 12 games with him reffing! Good article, bad timing for the idiots.
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